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Not to sound like a downer... but...
Do you have a swimming pool near by? Throw your kayak in there. Do a couple laps. Invite some of your hot neighbors over for a BBQ. Throw in some goldfish and a couple kids doing cannon balls in the deep end to simulate waves and you're set.
Being OTW over this weekend is going to suck- I would venture to say- everywhere. Probably at the aforementioned pool, too.
Having that said, no one can predict which one of the two spots you had in mind will be less crowded, yet full of good looking ladies. I can make an educated guess that everywhere will be crowded, with boats and good looking ladies around- Maybe even boats WITH good looking ladies on them. Just get out there, and enjoy the impending traffic/parking/kayaking/swimming/boating nightmare we call the 4th of July. Heck, I wish I could!!!
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-Kevin
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